India Consumer - Monsoon monitor: A weak start, but not unprecedented

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India Consumer - Monsoon monitor: A weak start, but not unprecedented

Global Markets Research

India Consumer 22 June 2026

EQUITY: CONSUMER RELATED

Monsoon monitor: A weak start, but not unprecedented Research Analysts

India Consumer Related

First fortnight of June sees 40%-below-normal rains leading to delayed sowing; both are expected Mihir P. Shah - NFASL

to pick up; El Niño conditions exist but are weak; reservoir and buffer stock levels high mihir.shah1@nomura.com

+91 22 403 74232

Weak and delayed start to the monsoon; advancement expected in coming weeks, but to Riya Patni - NFASL

be below normal: riya.patni@nomura.com

+91 22 405 33473

• Rainfall in the first fortnight of June was 40% below normal (Fig. 1 ): The India

Meteorological Department (IMD) believes that southwest monsoon will advance over the

coming weeks, but will remain below normal over most parts of the country.

○ Some parts of South and North-East will see near normal rainfall, which will be

supportive to improve their reservoir levels which incidently are the two regions are

experiencing relatively lower levels currently vs last year (Fig. 11 ).

• Not unprecedented: Historically June has seen similar below-average rainfall in 2009 /

2012 / 2014 / 2019 of -47% / -27% / -44% / -31%; however, the rainfall in later months made

up for it, with overall rainfall closing at -22% / -8% / -13% / +9% (Fig. 13 ).

• The onset of southwest monsoon has been delayed but not lost: The monsoon set in

over Kerala on 4-Jun-26, vs the normal date of 1-Jun, and covered most of southern, eastern

and north-eastern India by 15-Jun. However, we note that post that the progress has been

slower, leading to delays in sowing.

○ A delay in sowing does not translate into a weak Kharif output. We have seen in