European Economics Weekly: Germany: Defeat at WC, Win at Reforms?

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European Economics Weekly: Germany: Defeat at WC, Win at Reforms?

20 7425-2318

June ECB review here). Oil prices have come down notably since the ECB delivered

Latest research | In case you missed itits June projections, and we were not surprised that President Lagarde took the view

Aerospace & Defence | NATO Summit 2026that (downside) risks to growth and (upside) risks to inflation appear “more broadly

Preview: Turning Pledges into Productsbalanced” than a few weeks ago. The relatively soft June inflation print (see our take

France Macro | 2026 Public Deficit: More Thanhere) is fully in line with that assessment. Still, the ECB will be paying a lot of

Expectedattention to the potential for indirect and second-round effects (see here and here).

Euro Inflation Watch | Past the PeakFor that, the details of the June print will matter, as well as the data for July and

Euro Area Inflation | Less Than FearedAugust. It is not only the energy shock that is affecting euro area inflation. A

European Economics Weekly | 10 Years On fromsurprisingly robust business cycle, in large part explained by strong, AI-driven

the Brexit Referenduminvestments in the US (“Chipflation”, see our takes here and here) is another reason

UK Economics | Ten Years On from Referendumpolicy makers are cautious about the outlook for price stability. So, the next euro

Euro Inflation Preview | Consolidating Lastarea inflation prints, together with the evolution of energy prices and growth, will

Month's Core Uptickbe key for the ECB’s decision in September. Another hike is currently our baseline

(see our discussion here), but the chances of a hold have clearly increased, and

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