Lift TP on Foundayo launch acceleration

研报英文原文证据摘录

Lift TP on Foundayo launch acceleration

Macquarie Equity Research Chugai Pharmaceutical

Key Risks to Investment Thesis Company Description

• Slower-than-anticipated sales ramp-up for orfo in obesity. As a subsidiary of the Swiss pharma giant Roche (61%

• Potential Hemlibra loss of market share to Novo Nordisk's ownership), Chugai is a technology-driven biopharma with

Mim8 (BLA submitted in Sep 2025, possible launch in 2026). a science-based R&D approach focusing on all therapeutic

• Research and clinical setbacks. areas. Successful drugs (Hemlibra, Actemra and Alecensa)

firmly cemented its leading position amongst the top

Japanese pharmaco. Chugai commercialises Roche's drugs

in addition to its own drugs in Japan, whilst Roche markets

Chugai's drugs and funds its R&D efforts overseas. Strong R&D

productivity and new product line-up will propel growth.

Figure 1 - Revenue breakdown by source Figure 2 - Revenue breakdown by region

(JPY bn)

2,500 100%90%

2,000 80%

70% 49% 58% 62% 62% 62% 65% 67% 68% 68% 70% 72% 60%

1,500 213 254 319 377

50% 120

60 13 40% - 1,000 - 807 806 833 805 775 708 30% 631 628 605 537

20% 500 51% 42% 38% 38% 38% 35% 33% 32% 32% 30% 28% 10% 590 581 579 570 567 549 527 499 472 461

- 0%

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E

Domestic drug sales Overseas drug sales Revenue from Japan Revenue from overseas

Collaboration revenue from orforglipron Collaboration revenue from other drugs

Others

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Jun 2026

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) JPY/(bn) unless otherwise noted

Income Statement Dec FY 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Q1/26A Q2/26E Balance Sheet 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

Revenue 1,258 1,372 1,450 1,604 321.7 338.8 Cash 426.6 548.9 765.9 954.6