Pluto eclipse fades, next up Scarborough gas

研报英文原文证据摘录

Pluto eclipse fades, next up Scarborough gas

Macquarie Equity Research

01 July 2026

Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

Woodside Energy Australia

Mark Dylan

Key Points Wiseman, CFA Reid

• WDS reporting 2Q on Wed, 29 July. We expect 2Q production of WDS AU Neutral

40.1MMboe (VA Cons 40.8MMboe) and US$3,669m revenue (VA Cons Price (at 1 Jul 2026) AUD28.40

US$3,779m). 12-month target AUD30.00

• Pluto volumes remained outside of the major planned maintenance 12-monthVolatility IndexTSR (%) Medium9.6

turnaround in May. Market Cap (Local) (m) 53,991

Market Cap (USD) (m) 37,405• Neutral. Scarborough start-up later in CY26 now the key near-term

catalyst for WDS. Shares currently implying US$61.20/bbl. 30-day avg turnover (AUD) (m) 157.6

Investment Fundamentals

• Pluto turnaround: WDS conducted a major planned maintenance YearRevenueend(m) 31 Dec 2025A12,782 2026E14,486 2027E13,218 2028E12,022

turnaround at Pluto Train 1 in May, which hopefully has gone well EBITDA (m) 9,277 9,541 8,020 6,803

and raised confidence for long-awaited first gas production from EBITDA growth (%) 0.0 2.8 (15.9) (15.2)

Scarborough soon (to be followed by first LNG production and then EBIT (m) 4,032 4,854 3,506 2,343

first LNG export shipments by late-CY26 via Pluto Train 2). No Pluto T1 EBIT growth (%) (10.7) 20.4 (27.8) (33.2)

Reported profit (m) 2,718 3,002 1,940 1,043

LNG shipments in the month of May, but we expect there will have been Adjusted profit (m) 2,649 3,002 1,940 1,043

interconnector volumes via NWS. EPS adj (¢) 139.5 158.1 102.2 54.9

• NWS decline: Even with the interconnector gas volumes, NWS export EPSPER adjadj growth(x) (%) (8.0)14.1 13.312.4 (35.4)19.3 (46.2)35.8

rates appear as if another one of the original LNG trains could soon be PER rel (x) 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.5