Malaysia Strategy - 2H26 Outlook

研报英文原文证据摘录

Malaysia Strategy - 2H26 Outlook

Macquarie Equity Research

01 July 2026

Equity Strategy

ASEANMalaysia Strategy - 2H26 Outlook

From politicking to profits (2)

Andrew Amanda

Key Points San, CFA Foo

• General election, US mid-terms, Fed rate hikes, tariffs and Middle East

situation among key events likely to drive 2H26 macro / market.

• We advocate for core exposures with bottom-up and top-down IzzatiHakim, CFA ColinLee

resilience. Trading can take advantage of geopolitical/macro volatilities.

• Key anchor picks: Hospitals (IHH), Consumers (FFB, MRDIY), Planters Figure 1 - Analysis flowchart

(SDG), while selective in Telcos (T, TDC) and turning positive on GAM.

Key calls for 2H26:

Geopolitics: Mid-term elections may serve as guardrails, helping improve

geopolitical visibility in the near-term, limiting focus to tariffs and Tehran.

Tariff risk is manageable for Malaysia given diversified export base, but

tariff-induced market volatility will return in July with USTR/ global tariff

developments.

Domestic politics: Results from the upcoming state elections in Johor and

Negeri Sembilan will be key to validating UMNO/BN's recent momentum. An

early GE16 remains our base case, as is an Anwar Government outcome,

though a PM Zahid scenario is gaining traction. Nevertheless policy

continuity is our expectation.

Macro: We reduce our 2026 GDP growth to 4.8% on lower consumption

growth and government expenditure - the latter due to fiscal reallocations

for the additional ~RM14b (MQe) fuel subsidy bill and with populist spending

(GE16 run-up). Robust investments and trade are set to continue. We

expect an unchanged fiscal YoY deficit of 3.8%. We maintain 26e inflation

of 2.0% with broader sticky cost pressures even after normalisation

of oil prices.