STZ: On Track...Not Better...Nor Worse

研报英文原文证据摘录

STZ: On Track...Not Better...Nor Worse

Constellation Brands, Inc. Equity Research

Estimates and drivers.

Total company. We lowered organic sales driven by lower Exhibit 1 - Total STZ - WF vs Street

depletions in Beer and wider shipment gaps in W&S, while we

trimmed our margins mostly driven by W&S given that we expect

more operating de-leverage this quarter (vs rest of year) as STZ

continues to work down excess inventory in the channel.

General idea on FY27. We think the general idea is that STZ's

FQ127 will put the company "on track" to deliver FY27 guidance.

This is a step-change relative to FQ426 earnings several months

ago, when STZ's guidance felt particularly conservative relative to

trend. Ultimately, the volatility that STZ had expected did indeed

arrive, and the company has gone from "guidance upside" to what

appears now "guidance doable".

Former STZ CEO Bill Newlands on FQ426 EPS call: "So certainly, we

remain optimistic about the year that we have just begun, but we need

to continue to recognize volatility has been high and visibility has been Source: Company reports, Visible Alpha, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

low." estimates

For FQ127, we model Beer depletions -1.0% vs scanner -1.9 and Exhibit 3 - Beer segment - WF vs Street

Street at -0.1%. The general idea here: we're maintaining depletion

at a gap of about +1ppt ahead of scanner, similar to FQ426. Latest

scanner data shows depletions tracking -0.6% L2We 6/13/26, and

we model flat depletions for FQ227 QTD.

Exhibit 2 - STZ Beer Depletions vs Tracked Channel Consumption

Source: Company reports, Visible Alpha, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Source: Company reports, NielsenIQ AOC+C+Liquor, Visible Alpha estimates

consensus, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates

STZ $ callouts.