CNP: The Grid Still Has Room to Run? Premium Multiple, but Upside Math Matters More than the Sticker Price

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CNP: The Grid Still Has Room to Run? Premium Multiple, but Upside Math Matters More than the Sticker Price

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — June 29, 2026

Regulated Electric Utilities

Centerpoint Energy, Inc.

The Grid Still Has Room to Run? Premium Multiple, but Overweight

Upside Math Matters More than the Sticker Price Price Target: $48.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

Our time with CNP's CEO and CFO reinforced that the premium debate is really about EPS 2026 1.93 1.92 0.4%

duration, not just the 7-9% EPS CAGR. We see a steady conversion of visible demand into EPS 2027 2.11 2.10 0.6%

funded capital beyond the decade. Reiterate OW.

Ticker CNP

Valuation remains the debate, but the math is not unreasonable if duration holds and Upside/(Downside) to Target 6.6%

incremental upsides are relevant. CNP trades at an ~18% premium to the group’s 16.1x Price (06/26/2026) $45.04

2028E P/E. The co has several ways to defend it: $65B+ of 10-year capital, more than 52 Week Range $35.46 - 45.08

$10B of upside still being refined, ~12GW+ of TX large-load studies, demand-charge cash

Market Cap (MM) $29,699

flow, mobile-gen sublease upside, and a dividend payout ratio ~50%.

Average Daily Value (MM) $237

Texas remains the main engine, and the 2H load study is the next real capex marker. Dividend Yield 2.1%

CNP has ~12GW of large-load studies underway, with no broad customer curtailment

signal to date. Batch Zero and Batch 1 should clean up the queue, but CNP’s existing $ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

capacity and history connecting large customers still leave it better positioned on speed- EPS

to-power than the headline process noise implies. 2026E 0.56 A 0.39 E 0.48 E 0.51 E 1.93 E

Prior NC NC 0.47 E NC 1.92 E

TX load to create cash flow before the next capex ask.