Swedish Orphan Biovitrum: Q2'26 preview: BARC Rev/EPS +3%/+3% vs. cons. BARCe FY26 Sales guidance u/g, from LDD, to Low-Mid-Teens, already in cons.

研报英文原文证据摘录

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum: Q2'26 preview: BARC Rev/EPS +3%/+3% vs. cons. BARCe FY26 Sales guidance u/g, from LDD, to Low-Mid-Teens, already in cons.

Barclays | Swedish Orphan Biovitrum

We update our model for 2026 now assuming 19% CER Revenue growth and 36% aEBITA

margin, meaning our forecasts would also be ahead of upgraded guidance. We upgrade our

topline forecast by 3-18% 2026-31, driven primarily by the derisking of recent approvals/

launches: (1.) Tryngolza FCS EU launch and (2.) pozedeutinuard gout success and (3.) gamifant

reporting positive topline IDS results in H1. This is only partly offset by moving our GOUT US

approval, following the recent CRL.

Following a change in covering analyst, we move to a PE-derived PT, now setting our PT at

SEK 530, based on a 25x '27E PE, justified by a 20% 2027-31 EPS CAGR, vs. mid-cap peers

on 18x '27 PE for a LDD% 2027-31 EPS CAGR. With our PT offering 13% upside potential, we

remain OW.

Recent events summary

• In May, SOBI announced positive topline results for pozdeutinurad in the Phase III

REDUCE-2 trial for progressive / tophaceous / uncontrolled gout. More detailed clinical

data is expected to be announced at a medical congress in Q4, but we view the result as

directionally positive, and update our PoS to 100% (2028 launch), resulting in a PV of 55 SEK /

share.

• On June 26th, the FDA issued a CRL in response to Sobi's BLA for NASP in uncontrolled

gout, citing manufacturing and facility deficiencies rather than clinical concerns. As a

result, we delay our NASP launch date to Q4'27 (from Q3'26), maintaining our overall forecast

for the product, whilst reducing near-term H2'26 SG&A requirements that were attributed to

the launch.

Q2'26 Forecasts: