Swiss Life: Model update pre 1H26

研报英文原文证据摘录

Swiss Life: Model update pre 1H26

Equity Research

European Insurance

2 July 2026

Swiss Life

Model update pre 1H26

We update our estimates to incorporate market movements

and company specific events ahead of 1H26 results.

SLHN.S/SLHN SW OVERWEIGHT

Unchanged

We expect the second quarter to be relatively uneventful, with top-line growth in line with

European Insurance NEUTRALrecent 1Q26 trends. At the bottom line, higher taxes in France are likely to create some

headwinds, while fee results should grow by c. 5% YoY in 1H26 on our estimates. Overall, we

Price Target CHF 890.00forecast GWP of CHF12,449m at 1H26, up by c. 3% YoY mainly driven by Switzerland, and within

fee and commission income at CHF1,291m in our estimates; we forecast share of total non-

Price (01-Jul-26) CHF 888.20recurring income for TPAM broadly in line with 1Q26 and expect Swiss Life to reach the 25%

Potential Upside/Downside +0.2%target by the end of the year. We expect fee result at CHF411m in 1H26, marginally up from last

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

year. We forecast CSM at CHF15.9bn up by c. 4% from FY25 supported by positive economic

variances. At TPAM, we see AUM growing to CHF151bn, benefiting from higher NNA at CHF3bn in

Market Cap (CHF mn) 253422Q26, mainly driven by the positive contribution from the inflows from the index business. Net

Shares Outstanding (mn) 28.53profit at CHF635m at 1H26 in our estimates. We expect SST at 213% broadly stable from 21/05

Free Float (%) 99.60when management shared the level of capital position with MTM neutral impact since then.

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.1With 1H results, Swiss Life will report the majority of its cash remittances at Holding:

Dividend Yield (%) 4.11CHF1,209m in our estimates, up by c. 4% from 1H25.