N.A. Chems & Pkg’g "Fun with Fertilizers" Beaumont

研报英文原文证据摘录

N.A. Chems & Pkg’g "Fun with Fertilizers" Beaumont

Neutral, updated ferts outlook (link), 2026 Global Ag Outlook deep dive across

NPK, ag macro, seeds & crop chems in our 2026 Ag outlook (link).

USDA acreage estimates 95M/85M for corn/soy; U.S. Corn and Soy crop

conditions positive but slightly below last year

With the latest 2026 acreage report, the USDA now expects corn planted area at

95.3M acres (unchanged since March prospective plantings), and soybeans

planted area at 85.3M acres (slightly higher vs. 84.7M in March). This came in

above expectations for corn acreage to be revised lower as a result of higher

nitrogen costs and reduced availability. This compares with our initial expectations

in early 2026 (link) of ~93M/~87M corn/soy and represents a smaller shift to soy

(~2M below) vs. our initial estimate.

According to the latest USDA crop progress report (as of 6/29), crop conditions are

running slightly below last year for corn, and are generally in line for soy. 67% of

corn is in good or excellent condition vs. 73% last year, and 65% of soybean crop

is in good or excellent condition vs. 66% in the same week last year. While

conditions are slightly softer Y/Y, crop progress is running at or ahead of schedule.

The latest weekly weather and crop bulletin showed generally favorable growing

conditions across much of the Corn Belt. Above average rainfall across the

Southern Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley improved soil moisture. Drought

conditions continue to ease in the Corn Belt, while the hot and dry conditions

persist in the western U.S. (Fig 4). We will continue to monitor these trends, as lack

of sufficient precipitation during the crop growth cycle could impact yields/

production and crop prices into 2027, but has yet to have a significant impact to

date.