Non-Residential Construction Update "July is annual revision month; steady..."

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Non-Residential Construction Update "July is annual revision month; steady..."

Global Research

1 July 2026ab

Non-Residential Construction Update Equities

AmericasJuly is annual revision month; steady trends in

May, but tougher comps on now higher 2024- Industrial

2025 Steven Fisher,AnalystCFA

steven.fisher@ubs.com

+1-212-713 8634

Census revised 2024-2026 spending data: Avinatan Jaroslawicz

Analyst

Every year, with the July report (May data), the US Census Bureau revises historical avinatan.jaroslawicz@ubs.com

data based on updated input that they have received from their various channels +1-212-713 1405

and models. While the % declines in 2026 now look bigger YOY, it's largely

Judah Aronovitz

because 2024 and 2025 dollars have been revised higher. Over time, we expect

Associate Analyst

the 2026 will be revised as well (direction and magnitude TBD). Overall, we judah.aronovitz@ubs.com

observe the general trends are intact vs. last month. +1-212-713-4881

With this update, 2024 non-res spending was revised higher by ~$41b which now Alberto Valerio

translates into 8.4% growth vs. 5.0% previously, on a YoY basis. Analyst

alberto.valerio@ubs.com

For 2024, all categories except Communication were revised higher +55-11-2767 6918

2025 non-res spending was revised higher by ~$60b which now translates into

Joshua Spector, CFA

1.0% growth vs. -0.5% previously, on a YoY basis. Analyst

joshua.spector@ubs.com For 2025, all categories except Communication and Manufacturing were

+1-212-713 6188

revised higher.

Jan-Apr 2026 non-res spending was revised higher by ~$7b, comps are now more Lauren Sullivan

difficult, pushing growth rates lower. Associate Analyst

lauren.sullivan@ubs.com

Data centers are a larger category than previously assumed; per the revised data, +1-212-713 8230