Japan Watch: BoJ Tankan: Resilient activity and rising upside risks to inflation

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Japan Watch: BoJ Tankan: Resilient activity and rising upside risks to inflation

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Japan Watch

BoJ Tankan: Resilient activity and rising

upside risks to inflation

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Summary 01 July 2026

The June BoJ Tankan (survey period: 28 May–30 June; 9,141 respondents) shows firm Economics

business sentiment and capex plans despite heightened Middle East tensions, with Japan

financial conditions remaining accommodative. At the same time, rising cost pressures Takayasu Kudo

and higher inflation expectations point to growing upside risks to prices. The Tankan is Japan Economist

unlikely to carry meaningful near-term policy implications, as the BoJ raised rates in BofAS+81 3 6225Japan8592

June. However, if the September Tankan (to be released on 1 October) again shows takayasu.kudo@bofa.com

resilient activity and upside inflation risks, it would provide strong data support for a BoJ Izumi Devalier

rate hike from October onward. JapanBofASEconomistJapan

+81 3 6225 6257

Manufacturing sentiment improved sharply izumi.devalier@bofa.com

Manufacturing business conditions DI, which had been expected to deteriorate slightly

due to Middle East tensions, instead improved sharply, led by large firms (Chart 1). While

Table 1: Resilient business sentimentsentiment in petroleum and coal products weakened further, as in the March survey,

Business conditions DI (favorable -

sentiment improved broadly in sectors such as general and electrical machinery, unfavorable, pt)

supported by solid domestic and external demand (Chart 3). Non-manufacturing

sentiment also strengthened, led by accommodation and food services and retail, and Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep-

25 26 26 26

remained at historically high levels (Chart 2).

Large enterprises