Wurtzel's Weekly Wrap - Mortgage Data Points Improvement Exiting '26; Likely Neutral for C2Q

研报英文原文证据摘录

Wurtzel's Weekly Wrap - Mortgage Data Points Improvement Exiting '26; Likely Neutral for C2Q

June 28, 2026

Investment Conclusion

YTD, the Wolfe Business and Information Services Index is down 21.0%, compared to the S&P 500 up 7.4% and the

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index up 10.6%.

Business and Information Services (Market Weight): While our coverage universe outperformed the market during

the first half of the year given low exposure to tariffs and investors looking for idiosyncratic growth drivers along with

low-beta stocks, our space has lagged the market thus far in 2H25, which we believe can be attributed to rotation into

tech companies more exposed to AI and balance sheet financials. More recently, our coverage has seen headwinds

associated with fears around AI disintermediation, much of which we believe to be overblown. As we head through

year-end, we favor companies with macro tailwinds driving better-than-expected fundamentals (SPGI, MCO, MSCI),

those with the potential to outperform on top-line due to company-specific factors (FICO and CSGP) and stocks with

stable growth where we believe a sell-off has been overdone (VRSK and TRU). We believe shares of ADP, BR,

CLVT, EFX, EXPN-GB, FA, and IT are likely to be range-bound over the near-term and see relative underperformance

persisting at FDS and PAYX.

Valuation: Our coverage universe is currently trading at a NTM P/E multiple of 16.7x, compared to its 1-, 3-, 5-, and

10-year median multiples of 22.8x, 27.5x, 27.4x, and 25.8x, respectively. This represents a 3.4x discount relative to

the S&P 500 NTM P/E multiple, compared to its 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year median premiums of 0.8x, 6.5x, 7.0x, and 7.4x.

Relative to the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index, our coverage is trading at a 0.5x premium, compared to its 1-, 3-, 5-,