Fox Factory Holding Corp: Limited earnings upside in 2026; lower rating to Underperform from Neutral

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Fox Factory Holding Corp: Limited earnings upside in 2026; lower rating to Underperform from Neutral

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Fox Factory Holding Corp

Limited earnings upside in 2026; lower

rating to Underperform from Neutral

Rating Change: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 20.00 USD | Price: 18.09 USD

Limited earnings upside; lower to Underperform 30 June 2026

FOXF has been focused on controlling what they can control in a relatively tougher end Equity

market backdrop. The company is progressing through its Profit Optimization Initiative,

centered on business line rationalization, supply chain and materials cost productivity,

Key Changesand opex reduction. While these initiatives should drive an uptick in 2H26 margins, we

see limited 2026 earnings upside. The industry-wide aluminum supply disruption that (US$) Previous Current

has impacted the company’s Aftermarket Applications Group (AAG) could last longer into Inv. Opinion C-2-9 C-3-9

3Q coupled with continued industry softness in FOXF’s Marucci Specialty Sports Group Inv. Rating NEUTRAL UNDERPERFORM

division. As such, we lower our estimates and our rating to Underperform from Neutral. Price Obj. 24.00 20.00

2026E Rev (m) 1,393.7 1,368.5

2027E Rev (m) 1,439.7 1,376.3FOXF could continue to feel aluminum impact

FOXF’s AAG division has been pressured partly on volume mix and operational challenges 2028E Rev (m) 1,497.3 1,431.4

stemming from an aluminum shortage affecting Ford’s ability to manufacture its F150 2026E EPS 1.56 1.39

line, which is an important part of FOXF’s aftermarket business (Ford was 12% of 2027E EPS 1.73 1.57

company 2025 net sales). The issue could push into 3Q26 rather than be resolved earlier 2028E EPS 1.84 1.75

in the quarter, which is the biggest driver of our new revenue forecast of $1,369M from