Updating Our MCED Market Model (GRAL)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Updating Our MCED Market Model (GRAL)

s in 2026, growing

to ~76M patients in 2035.

To size the near term, serviceable addressable market (SAM) opportunity, we • US SAM:

use the proxy of US concierge clinics. Our checks have indicated that these concierge

physicians are the most robust early adopters of MCED testing, namely Galleri today,

and given the upfront costs of membership to these clinics, we think it is a reasonable

proxy to measure the US adult population willing and able to pay out of pocket for Galleri

today. We assume concierge clinic patients have a similar age distribution as the total

US population, which is likely an under-estimation of the Galleri-eligible patients in these

clinics given most of these clinics are not for pediatrics. We calculate there are ~1.5M

concierge patients of eligible age for Galleri in the US in 2026, growing to ~2.7M in 2035.

Should NHS agree to adopt Galleri and implement it for screening in the UK, • UK TAM:

virtually all adults of eligible age in the jurisdiction would be included in the opportunity.

Based on the most recent UK census data and conservative population growth estimates,

we think this would equate to ~18.4M adults aged 50-74 in 2026 (noting that this is a

minimum estimate given census data cutoff of 74 and the NHS Galleri enrollment was for

ages 55-77). More broadly than the NHS trial age range, we model ~23.8M UK patients

over the age of 50 in 2026.

MCED TAM & SAM Analysis

Market Penetration

We only perform this exercise for the US at present given this is the geography where the

vast majority of Galleri volume comes from today.

We don't break out the market share by test across all tests • US TAM Penetration:

available, because we assume an immaterial number of Cancerguard (ABT, formerly