MENA Financials Key ideas ahead of the 2Q 26 earnings season

研报英文原文证据摘录

MENA Financials Key ideas ahead of the 2Q 26 earnings season

30 June 2026

MENA Financials EquitiesFinancials

Key ideas ahead of the 2Q 26 earnings season Middle East North Africa

◆ We forecast net income for the MENA Financials we cover to Aybek Islamov*, CFA

grow 1% y/y on average in 2Q 26, in-line with 1Q 26 y/y growth Analyst, EEMEA Financials HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai branch

aybek.islamov@hsbc.com

◆ The results season can be a positive catalyst for CIB Egypt, +971 4 423 6921

AlRajhi, and ADCB; we group stocks by five investment themes Bhavin Rathod*, CFA

Analyst, MENA Financials

HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited

◆ Upgrade FAB and UIHC to Buy from Hold; MENA financials bhavinkumarrathod@hsbc.co.in

trade at 2027e P/E of 10.9x and a sector yield of 5% +91 80 4550 2993

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

CIB Egypt (CBKD LI, USD2.58, Buy, TP USD3.54) should report 15% y/y increase in not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

net income in 2Q 26, largely due to healthy asset growth (24% y/y), and NIM to contract

15bp yoy but remain stable qoq, we estimate. We forecast cost of risk charges at 31bp

vs a release of 38bp and 34bp in 2Q 25 and 1Q 26, respectively. CIB Egypt remains a

high-quality compounder, with higher-for-longer rates supporting NIM. A pivot to

commercial lending/fees plus strong operating leverage drives 23% NAV CAGR

(2025-28e). The stock trades at 2027e TNAV of 1.2x vs ROTE of 29.2%.

Al Rajhi Bank (RJHI AB, SAR66.30, Buy, TP SAR84.00) should report 16% y/y net

income growth in 2Q 26, we estimate. Key earnings drivers centre on NIM improvement

(HSBCe 41bp y/y, the top-end of management’s FY26 guidance). Improving asset yield