Rockwell Automation: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Rockwell Automation: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Rockwell Automation (ROK.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Sep 2025 Sep 2026e Sep 2027e Sep 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

04 Aug 2026 -

Organic growth (%) 1.3 7.3 7.7 6.3 Q3 2026 Rockwell Automation Inc Earnings Release

10 Aug 2026

04 Nov 2026 -

Operating Margins (%) 18.9 21.8 22.9 23.5 Q4 2026 Rockwell Automation Inc Earnings Release

09 Nov 2026

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Productivity investments driven by digital RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Sep 2026e

transformation and supply chain investments. Trade policy and geopolitical dynamics

Healthier capex outlooks broadly should lead to stabilize, unlocking large project activity Sales / 8,988

a sharp recovery. US Reshoring momentum accelerates through Revenue 8,886 9,125

F'27, improving ROK's long-term organic ($, mm) 8,969

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE framework.

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 2,281 0-10% China and India EBITDA US mega-project delays where lighter activity 1,872 2,348

0-10% India could limit capex budgets and order ($, mm) 2,151

0-10% Japan conversion.

0-10% Latin America Heightened US competition as Automation

0-10% MEA peers follow Global Mfg capex. Net income 1,485

0-10% Mainland China 1,343 1,512 ($, mm)

0-10% UK 1,443

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 10-20% Europe ex UK

60-70% North America Inst. Owners, % Active 51.5% 13.20

EPS

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x ($) 12.53 13.30

View explanation of regional hierarchies here 12.95

HF Sector Net Exposure 8.8%

MS ALPHA MODELS Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research