Sika AG: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Sika AG: Risk Reward Update

'25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 1 Jul

2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE SFr 218.00 BASE CASE SFr 176.00 BEAR CASE SFr 101.00

Growth recovers to upper end of target 5% growth, margin in target range mid term Sika underperforms peers and loses share

range. EV/EBITDA: 16x FY26e EBITDA, 1 standard We assume -1% revenue growth in 2026 –

We assume revenue growth of 6% annually, deviation below the 10-year EV/EBITDA. We this would represent a scenario where China

vs. 3-6% outgrowth vs. market targeted by see the de-rating as justified by a reset trends do not stabilise but continue to

management mid-term. Puts terminal year lower in growth. deteriorate and growth outside this region is

revenues 13% ahead of base case. EBITDA not offset by a pick-up in European /

margin ~100bps ahead of base case on DCF: 2% local currency revenue growth in Americas markets. Thereafter, 2-3% growth

operating leverage. Approaches top end of 2026, below mid term target of 3-6% as to 2030 assumed, at the low end of

target range mid-term. WACC, terminal China continues to drag, ~5% local currency management's targeted range. Margins only

growth and capital intensity (capex/sales) growth in mid term. EBITDA margins range manage to recover to 20% in this scenario

are unchanged vs.