Constellation Brands Trends Improving, Debate on How Good Is Good Enough: Model Update Post-F1Q27

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Constellation Brands Trends Improving, Debate on How Good Is Good Enough: Model Update Post-F1Q27

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

01 July 2026

Constellation Brands Neutral

STZ, STZ US

Trends Improving, Debate on How Good Is Good Price (01 Jul 26):$136.88

Enough: Model Update Post-F1Q27 ▼Price Target (Dec-27):$165.00 Prior (Dec-26):$169.00

We are updating our Constellation Brands (STZ, Neutral rated) model following

F1Q27 earnings results (link to first reaction), conference call, and follow-up Beverage, Household & Personal

Care Productsgroup meeting with VP of IR Blair Veenema.

Drew Levine, CFA AC

(1-212) 622-0374• Stock Reaction Reflects Less-Upbeat-Than-Expected Commentary,

Positioning, In Our View. STZ shares finished -1.6% vs. S5BEVG/S5HOUS/ drew.levine@jpmorgan.com

S5PACK +1.4%/+0.9%/+3.4% despite the top-line/EPS beat, which we Andrea Teixeira, CFA

believe reflects 1) while CEO Fink noted June improvement in consumption (1-212) 622-6735

trends, investors’ read of the recent data and management commentary seems andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com

to be that, while positive, it may not be good enough given the tailwinds (e.g., Shovana Chowdhury

easy laps on weather/immigration, World Cup, Father’s Day); 2) given the (1-212) 270-2184

shovana.chowdhury@jpmorgan.com

noisiness of the data, some investors are sitting on the sidelines until there is J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

a better view on how much of the improvement is sustainable vs. non-

recurring; 3) despite the upside to F1Q27, we don’t believe buy-side estimates

are moving up much post-print; and 4) STZ was a bit victim to the market tape Key Changes (FYE Feb)

as it was well-owned and there seemed to be short covering in Staples today. Prev Cur Δ

Revenue - 27E ($ mn) 9,123 9,173 0.5%