Paper Update: North America UCFS Prices Increase $20/ton in June; + for SLVM, PKG

研报英文原文证据摘录

Paper Update: North America UCFS Prices Increase $20/ton in June; + for SLVM, PKG

Truist Securities

Equity Research Report June 28, 2026

INDUSTRIALS: Paper

Paper Update: North America UCFS Prices

Increase $20/ton in June; + for SLVM, PKG Michael Roxland On Friday, Fastmarkets RISI (RISI) reported that North America uncoated freesheet

212-326-4839

Michael.Roxland@truist.com (UCFS) prices increased $20/ton in June citing tight supply, lower imports, and

persistent cost pressures bringing the ytd increase to $120/ton. Recall that RISI’s May

Paper Trader expected prices to increase ~$200/ton over 2025-2026, of which $160/ton Niccolo Piccini has already been realized, implying another ~$40/ton in 2H (link). Higher prices should 212-303-4140

Nico.Piccini@truist.com be positive for Sylvamo (SLVM, Buy) and Packaging Corporation of America (PKG,

Buy), the second- and third-largest North American UCFS producers, respectively.

5 Page Document As we’ve noted in prior research, UCFS supply has tightened due to capacity reductions,

lower imports, and grade conversions. In 2025, Pixelle (private) ended production

at its Chillicothe, OH mill (~400k tons nameplate capacity; ~7% of North American

Reasons for this report capacity) and in 2024 the industry closed ~700k+ tons (~11% of North American

capacity) across five mills. By 3Q26, International Paper (IP, Buy) will convert PM16 at

✓ Sector Update its Riverdale mill in Selma, AL from UCFS (~350k tons nameplate capacity, ~6% of North

✓ Industry Pricing American capacity) to containerboard. Supply tightness has also been exacerbated by

maintenance downtime (one paper machine at Pixelle’s Spring Grove, PA mill in June)

and fewer imports (down 7.2% y/y in May and 4.7% ytd). In aggregate, RISI estimates