Software Sundays: AI Scale, Monetization Not Factored into MSFT Shares

研报英文原文证据摘录

Software Sundays: AI Scale, Monetization Not Factored into MSFT Shares

Infrastructure & AI Software

EQUITY RESEARCH Industry Report

June 28, 2026

Software Sundays: AI Scale, Monetization Not

Research Analysts:

Thomas Blakey, CFA Factored into MSFT Shares

617-443-4487

Thomas.Blakey@cantor.com

Michael Vidovic

224-704-0733

Michael.Vidovic@cantor.com

Matthew Park

212-915-1835

Matthew.Park@cantor.com

Source: FactSet, Cantor

The debate surrounding Microsoft has shifted from whether the

company can build sufficient AI infrastructure to whether incremental

AI investment can generate durable returns. This debate and thesis has

creeped up over the last year or so, and the latest now includes a NT focus

on memory price hikes, which Microsoft included in its 2HC26 capex guide

on the latest quarterly call. While consensus increasingly assumes Azure

capacity growth moderates alongside sustained infrastructure intensity, we

believe expectations continue to under-appreciate Microsoft's ability to

monetize and sustainably profit from AI through multiple vectors, including

Copilot, Azure AI Foundry, model routing, and possibly its own proprietary

models and additions to the intelligence layer. Importantly, the market

already discounts slower infrastructure expansion at Microsoft, which

has accelerated in recent quarters, and continues to not fully reflect the

operating leverage that could emerge as inference economics improve

across the ecosystem and on Microsoft's platform.

Microsoft increasingly appears to be transitioning from the AI

infrastructure buildout phase toward the AI monetization phase, possibly

similar to its moves in the 2010s with the cloud, but with much larger

upfront costs and pay-offs. Consensus already discounts moderating