Deutsche Telekom AG: Concerns, risks...and valuation

研报英文原文证据摘录

Deutsche Telekom AG: Concerns, risks...and valuation

Equity Research

European Telecom Services

1 July 2026

Deutsche Telekom AG

Concerns, risks...and valuation

DTE has materially underperformed peers YTD due to a

number of concerns (competition, satellite risk, HoldCo

speculation). Our analysis shows that the current price DTEGn.DE/DTE GY OVERWEIGHT Unchanged

implies very negative outcomes, which we believe are European Telecom Services NEUTRAL

excessive. We factor some-in and cut our PT to €36.5 but Unchanged

remain OW. Price Target lowered -8% fromEUREUR36.5039.50

Price (30-Jun-26) EUR 23.85

Concerns and risks. DTE stock price has underperformed peers materially YTD (-11% vs +14%). Potential Upside/Downside +53.0%

This cannot be explained by earnings revisions: since the beginning of the year 2026E EBITDA Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Bloomberg consensus estimates are down -1% (whilst 2027E EBITDA estimates are up +2%).

There are however a number of risks that have emerged as well as concerns/negative narratives. Market Cap (EUR mn) 115667

1/A deterioration of the competitive environment: as our US colleagues indicate, while the latest Shares Outstanding (mn) 4849.78

offers do not yet point to a broad-based price war, the direction of travel is clearly more Free Float (%) 70.94

competitive than it was entering the year. 2/Satellite risk: We estimate that between 2020-2030 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 6.7

capacity will reach 1,300Tbps, a c. 550x increase in 10 years. This is driven by new LEO Dividend Yield (%) 4.20

constellations that are expanding in telecom services. As we discuss in the report (and here Return on Equity TTM (%) 13.83

Satellites Teach-in – Communications and Earth Observation - 23 April 2026), we believe this Current BVPS (EUR) 13.05