AkzoNobel: Q2 tracking broadly in line, with pricing momentum building

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AkzoNobel: Q2 tracking broadly in line, with pricing momentum building

Equity Research

European Chemicals & Ingredients

1 July 2026

AkzoNobel

Q2 tracking broadly in line, with

pricing momentum building

Akzo Q2 is tracking steady with pricing building and no AKZO.AS/AKZA NA EQUAL WEIGHT

observerable signs of demand destruction. We expect a Unchanged

European Chemicals &

temporary margin squeeze in Q3 and forecast improving FX. Ingredients NEGATIVE

Unchanged

Price Target EUR 57.00

Our view: We are incrementally more positive following a steadier Q2 delivery and clearer Unchanged

evidence of pricing momentum building into H2, with no signs of demand disruption. Price (30-Jun-26) EUR 59.34

However, with the shares having re-rated strongly since mid-May alongside falling oil, we Potential Upside/Downside -3.9%

think over 75% of the “input cost relief” trade is now priced in, with the shares having largely Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

retraced to pre–Middle East escalation levels. As such, we believe further upside is likely to

require incremental support from merger execution, where we see remaining value from Market Cap (EUR mn) 10152

synergies following the merger with Axalta (€20/share at best, in our view), rather than from Shares Outstanding (mn) 171.05

raw material tailwinds alone. From here, focus shifts to Q3 margin execution (where we Free Float (%) 96.50

expect a temporary squeeze) and the durability of pricing into H2. 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.6

Dividend Yield (%) 3.34Model updates: We leave our Q2 estimates broadly unchanged, with the only adjustment being

Return on Equity TTM (%) 13.07a slightly lower FX drag, particularly in Performance Coatings. This has no material impact on

Current BVPS (EUR) 28.51our Q2 earnings forecasts, with our Q2 adj.