Samsonite "Q226 preview: Moderating demand but the worst is likely behind" (Buy)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Samsonite "Q226 preview: Moderating demand but the worst is likely behind" (Buy)

12/26E 0.18 0.18 0 0.19

acceleration (+3.0%) thanks to a positive wealth effect, outweighing the drag in the

12/27E 0.20 0.20 0 0.22

India and Middle East markets, while we project the revenue trend in North America (-

12/28E 0.21 0.21 0 0.24

2.1%), Europe (-2.0%) & Latin America (+2.0%) to moderate. Despite higher raw

material cost during the quarter, we think the company is relatively insulated given their Perry Yeung

buffer inventory. In fact, we expect modest improvement in margin, supported by sales Analyst

mix shift towards higher margin geographies (i.e., Asia) & easing growth in perry.yeung@ubs.com

SG&A expenses (+6.2% YoY), although this is partially offset by a higher marketing +852-2971 6349

expenses ratio which was guided to be 8% of sales. While we expect the company to Angus Chan

have benefited from the US tariff refund the quantum might be smaller than expected as Analyst

the company is likely to distribute the tariff refund to their wholesale customers. angus.chan@ubs.com

+852-2971 7530

Broadly unchanged earnings estimates Samuel Yip

We leave our full-year estimates in 2026E-28E broadly unchanged. We expect FXN net Associate Analyst

samuel.yip@ubs.com

sales to grow 2.4% in 2026E, with H226E revenue to grow c3% YoY. On the bottom

+852-3712 2727

line, we forecast US$549m adjusted EBITDA in 2026E, down -10% YoY and implying

15.2% adjusted EBITDA margin.

Valuation: Slightly raised PT to HK$21.5/sh, remain Buy

We slightly lift our price target by 4% to HK$21.50/sh, mainly reflecting calendar

rollover effect. We derive our price target based on DCF methodology, with

7.4% WACC and 2.0% terminal growth rate.

Highlights (US$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E