Heineken "Q2/H1 26 preview: Volume trends stable, potential upside on EBIT"

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Heineken "Q2/H1 26 preview: Volume trends stable, potential upside on EBIT"

Brazil Nielsen data shows industry -2.6%/-1%% in April/May with 12/26E 5.37 5.41 1 5.18

12/27E 5.75 5.91 3 5.55

Heineken sell-out -5.3/-6.8% as prior year market share gains reverse. In Mexico,

12/28E 6.21 6.35 2 5.99

Heineken also continues to underperform the beer industry as it over indexes to the

North of the region and lap reversal of Q1 positive Easter phasing. In the US, Nielsen Sanjeet Aujla

data trends show Heineken volumes -10.5% in Q2TD (link) while industry is down -6%. Analyst

3) APAC (UBSe Q2 vols +4% vs cons +1.2%): Our Vietnam Nielsen tracker shows sanjeet.aujla@ubs.com

Heineken Q2 to date volumes +5.9%, broadly in line with Q1, supported by accelerating +44-20-7567 4529

market share trends. We expect India consolidated volumes to be flat, but overall Arnaud Autier

volumes +MSD% led by licensed volumes. We expect Cambodia to remain a significant Associate Analyst

near-term drag. 4) Africa (UBSe Q2 vols +3.5% vs cons +1.5%): We expect volume arnaud.autier@ubs.com

growth to accelerate versus Q1, as negative Easter phasing in South Africa is offset by +44-20-7901 6849

stronger growth in Ethiopia ahead of elections, whilst Nigeria continues to be less

negative.

H1 organic EBIT/margin upside: We forecast H1 organic EBIT growth +4.6% (cons

+2.6%), implying org EBIT margin +30bps (cons flat). We are more positive on margin

upside in Africa (UBSe +150bps v cons +60bps), where we expect a return to volume

growth in South Africa to support strong operating leverage in a business that is

currently under earning, whilst strong volume trends in Ethiopia supports favourable

mix. Overall our H1 EPS is +4% v consensus, helped by scope (FIFCO acquisition) and

lower share count from the buyback.