Global Strategy "Taking Stock with De Bock - Precious Uncertainty" De Bock

研报英文原文证据摘录

Global Strategy "Taking Stock with De Bock - Precious Uncertainty" De Bock

Global Research

30 June 2026ab

Global Strategy Global Strategy

GlobalTaking Stock with De Bock - Precious Uncertainty

Reinout De Bock

Strategist

Uncertainty then and now reinout.de-bock@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0152

More than 60 central banks and reserve managers joined UBS AM for the 32nd edition

of the Reserve Management Seminar. In 1970 Chair Holzach of the Schweizerische

Bankgesellschaft (SBG) bought the run-down Wolfsberg castle to serve as a training

center. Half of the bank’s employees were under the age of 25 and SBG needed a

training hub as banking and the world were changing quickly. But the Chair had bought

Wolfsberg without permission. It reportedly took a “risky lunch” with a fine food and a

beautiful view to bring everyone on board. Plus ça change?

Shared knowledge to the rescue

The Italian statistician Bruno de Finetti, born a 3h drive away from Wolfsberg, made the

point that you do not need absolute certainties to build a useful, shared stock of

knowledge. Probabilities are subjective but discussing facts and alternative views will

generally lead beliefs to converge.

Yesterday at Sintra, President Lagarde described last year's introduction of higher tariffs

is a "vivid illustration" of the failure of standard models. I read it as a gentle push to the

Sintra participants to make most out of the get-together and not expect absolute

certainties. In fact, it was thanks to discussions with reserve managers that my colleague

in FX strategy and myself proposed a portfolio approach to make a case for the euro and

bunds to trade stronger if President Trump was going to increase tariffs sharply (see

"Rates and euro under fading US exceptionalism (2 April '25)").