VAT Group AG "Channel checks; UBS above consensus on order intake at next..."

研报英文原文证据摘录

VAT Group AG "Channel checks; UBS above consensus on order intake at next..."

asic supply chain services). We still monitor the speed of

12/27E 15.76 14.89

capacity ramp and would see capacity bottlenecks rather than order trends as a

12/28E 19.98 17.49

bottleneck for our Q3 26 revenue forecast. In Switzerland hiring labour seems to be

working well while in Malaysia competition for (semi) labour appears challenging. We Joern Iffert, CFA

expect VAT's labour force to increase by more than 500 people, allowing the company Analyst

to ramp capacity and gradually deal with the order trends. That said, we think it could joern.iffert@ubs.com

increase its sales output by another 20-30% q/q in Q3 26E, approaching CHF350m+ +41-44-239 88 00

sales (UBSe CHF390m, consensus cCHF355m). We also monitor VAT's plans to build a Sebastian Vogel, CFA

new production site to deal with potential demand over the next five years. Analyst

sebastian.vogel@ubs.com

View on investor sentiment +41-44 239 90 45

Overall, we observe a positive investor sentiment on semi equipment names including Francois-Xavier Bouvignies

VAT. The shares have rallied strongly recently. However, we think the length and Analyst

francois.bouvignies@ubs.com

magnitude of the semi WFE capex cycle may be underestimated, and see more than

+44-20-7568 7105

10% upside risk to consensus earnings (details).

Valuation: DCF-based PT of CHF745

The stock trades on c44x 2027E and c34x 2028E PE (historical average 35-38x). The next

catalyst is the H1 26 results release, due on 22 July, which we expect to be reassuring

overall on fundamentals.

Highlights (CHFm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 885 942 1,073 1,381 1,853 2,287 2,516 2,767

EBIT (UBS) 244 266 288 430 596 755 850 957