U.S. Truck Brokerage "2Q Broker Preview: Mixed Response to a Tighter..."

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U.S. Truck Brokerage "2Q Broker Preview: Mixed Response to a Tighter..."

Global Research

30 June 2026ab

U.S. Truck Brokerage Equities

Americas2Q Broker Preview: Mixed Response to a Tighter

TL Market Transportation Services

Thomas Wadewitz

Analyst

thomas.wadewitz@ubs.com

Mix shift / strong spot loads drive EBITDA up for RXO +1-212-713 6116

Truckload rates stepped up significantly in May rising from ~$1.85 / mile (dry van ex fuel) Michael Triano

to ~$2.15 / mile which is a reflection of a rapidly tightening truckload market. While Analyst

RXO is experiencing significant pressure on GM% in its contract business, there is a michael.triano@ubs.com

larger offset from a step up in spot load volume and profitability on its spot loads. We +1-212-713 3822

believe RXO's exposure to spot loads could rise from 33% in 1Q toward the high 30s in Michael DiMattia

2Q. We are raising our 2Q26 EBITDA estimate for RXO from $32 mm to $36 mm and Analyst

also increasing our 2027 forecast from $237 mm to $262 mm. michael.dimattia@ubs.com

+1-617-748 5628

CHRW focusing on contract; mixed near term response to higher rates

Our most recent conversation with CHRW was somewhat muted relative to enthusiasm

about the benefit of a tighter truckload market expressed by a number of other brokers.

However, we have also received feedback which indicates strong leverage to the

contract business can be a headwind in the current environment which appears to be

the case for CHRW. We anticipate stronger revenue / load for CHRW in NAST TL in

2Q (vs 1Q) but also a sequential decline in gross margin percent of 30 bp. Feedback from

several private brokers indicates June was a very good month and an improving June

could provide a tailwind for CHRW in 2Q. We continue to believe CHRW will likely