Nike Inc. "Few Surprises in Nike's 4Q Report; Maintain Neutral Rating" (Neutral)

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Nike Inc. "Few Surprises in Nike's 4Q Report; Maintain Neutral Rating" (Neutral)

Global Research

30 June 2026ab

Nike Inc. Equities

AmericasFew Surprises in Nike's 4Q Report; Maintain

Neutral Rating Footwear

12-month rating Neutral *

12m price target US$48.00We don't see a reason to buy the stock:

Prior : US$50.00

The pivotal Nike question remains “Is all the ‘bad news’ now priced in?” Despite the

pullback in Nike’s stock price, we still don’t see a good entry point. Nike’s stock price is Price (30 Jun 2026) US$41.05

still not cheap at ~27x our FY27 EPS estimate, in our view, and this suggests a solid RIC: NKE.N BBG: NKE US

rebound remains priced in. We continue to see a balanced upside/downside skew. The

main upside risk is Nike returns to positive sales growth with expanding gross margin Trading data and key metrics

faster than expected. Yet the main downside risk is the rebound takes much longer than 52-wk range US$79.24-40.75

the market anticipates. Nike’s 4Q report did not cause us to change our thesis much. Market cap. US$60.9b

Shares o/s 1,483m (COM)

Nike's 4Q report underscores upside and downside sales and margin risks: Free float 100%

Nike lowered its CY26 sales guidance, but there were bright spots within the Avg. daily volume ('000) 5,124

outlook. Nike lowered its CY26 sales growth forecast to -L to -MSD% from -LSD Avg. daily value (m) US$225.1

%. We believe the main negative factor is Nike's fashion business continues to Common s/h equity (05/27E) US$13.8b

struggle. The issue is Nike's fashion business remains 50% of its sales mix. Nike P/BV (05/27E) 4.4x

may need to take this percentage much lower over time in order to reestablish Net debt to EBITDA (05/27E) NM

itself at the world's best sports brand. If so, it could serve as a major, multiyear drag