RATIONAL (1K) | Buy | Q2 preview

研报英文原文证据摘录

RATIONAL (1K) | Buy | Q2 preview

ounced price increases. The estimated impact of EUR6-8m will have a EPS adj. and ful. dil. 23.95 25.96 29.21

Consensus EPS 23.4 25.6 27.8

temporary dampening effect on sales growth in Q2. Net dividend 16.75 18.16 20.44

A reaccelerating order intake in June, leading to a EUR10-15m higher order FY to 31/01 (EUR) 01/26E 12/27E 12/28E

backlog at the end of the quarter, and continued growth in sales & marketing KPIs P/E adj and ful. dil. 27.0 24.9 22.2

point to reaccelerating sales in H2. In addition, the tariff refund and higher costs EV/EBITDA 17.2 15.7 13.8

for some materials are expected to broadly offset one another. Hence, the full year EV/EBIT 19.7 18.0 15.8

FCF yield 3.1% 3.7% 4.2%guidance for mid- to high single-digit revenue growth and the EBIT margin Dividend yield 2.6% 2.8% 3.2%

between 25-26% remains intact. ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA -1.3 -1.4 -1.5

Deconstructing the forecasts Gearing -55.5% -57.6% -60.0%

ROIC 53.0% 53.8% 57.5%

Despite adjusting our assumptions on a quarterly basis intra-year, our full-year EV/IC 13.2 12.5 11.7

2026 estimates remain broadly unchanged.

Sector Most Pref. Sector Least Pref.

For 2027E, however, we now assume higher costs for some key materials persist GEA Group Autostore

for some time longer, although we would expect some countermeasures to be Halma Krones

taken, lowering slightly our 2027E EBIT and EPS estimates by c. 2.5%. We Lagercrantz NKT Spirax Group Siemens

nevertheless estimate a 2025-28E EPS CAGR of 9.4%.

Valuation and investment conclusion

We continue to apply the average of our DCF valuation model and historical

multiples in deriving our new target price of EUR810 (EUR830).

This modest lowering reflects the moderate lowering of our 2027E estimates. Craig Abbott

Head of German Small & Mid Caps