Glanbia: Look for +8% Q2 PN OSG

研报英文原文证据摘录

Glanbia: Look for +8% Q2 PN OSG

lanbia’s portfolio. Exposure to

Performance Nutrition and Health & Nutrition positions the group at the favourable end of Food

& Beverage growth, particularly as GLP-1 penetration is likely to weigh on volumes and mix

across more traditional, calorie-led categories. By contrast, Glanbia’s core categories are

aligned with protein sufficiency, functional nutrition and active lifestyle consumption, which

appear complementary rather than antagonistic to GLP-1 adoption. The meaningful runway in

PN (Optimum Nutrition, Isopure, creatine) and H&N (functional beverages, VMS, active

nutrition) underpins our view that Glanbia offers scarce structural growth and cash generation

at a time when growth elsewhere in Food & Beverage is increasingly hard to find. We increase

our DCF-driven PT to €25 (from €24) reflecting earnings upgrades and stronger USD/EUR. At our

PT, Glanbia would trade on 17.9x 2027e PE which is broadly in line with the broader Consumer

Health peer group.

Key risks: Whey input cost volatility: Margins are exposed to elevated whey prices and

broader dairy input costs, with lagged pricing pass-through creating near-term profit

pressure. Demand elasticity/pricing risk: Branded Performance Nutrition (Optimum Nutrition,

etc.) faces volume sensitivity to price increases, particularly in a weakening consumer

environment. Competitive intensity: Heightened competition across both branded (sports

nutrition peers, private-label) and Nutritionals (global ingredients players) risks share loss and

pricing pressure.

GL9.I: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS (USD)

FY Dec 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

EPS 1.38A 1.35A 1.50E 1.60E 1.74E

Previous EPS 1.38A 1.35A 1.49E 1.59E 1.73E

Consensus EPS 1.40A 1.35A 1.50E 1.60E 1.74E

P/E 19.8 20.3 18.3 17.1 15.7