Verisure plc: Preview: a modest Q2 but shares cheap again

研报英文原文证据摘录

Verisure plc: Preview: a modest Q2 but shares cheap again

Equity Research

European Business Services

30 June 2026

Verisure plc

Preview: a modest Q2 but shares

cheap again

Q1 was a positive catalyst (strong free cash generation). Q2 VSURE.ST/VSURE SS OVERWEIGHT

should see FCF generation but lower than Q1, a high CPA Unchanged

again (rebrand) and a touch of installation softness. That European Business Services UnchangedPOSITIVE

said, the shares are cheap again at just 12% off the bottom Price Target EUR 15.10

since IPO, having traded to c40% off the bottom at Q1 results. Unchanged

Price (29-Jun-26) EUR 9.63

Potential Upside/Downside +56.9%

Fundamentally attractive - OW: We discussed in De-rating creates an attractive entry point Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

(1/4/26) that we consider execution, stronger cash generation in H2 and the payment of the

interim dividend in H2 to be catalysts for the shares. We continue to see these events as Market Cap (EUR mn) 9952

important for investors. Fundamentally, we think the business is executing well and delivering Shares Outstanding (mn) 1033.96

in line with expectations, and we would see any softness around Q2 results as an attractive Free Float (%) 24.57

entry point. Our €15.10 PT offers 57% upside potential and is based on a “steady-state” equity 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) N/A

FCF yield of 7.0% and a DCF for customer growth over the next 20yrs. Dividend Yield (%) N/A

Return on Equity TTM (%) N/AQ2 preview: For the KPIs we forecast new installations of 219k (+0.6% y/y), down from Q1

Current BVPS (EUR) 11.10(223k) as LatAm was a touch soft at the back end of Q1, and we would expect the same in Q2.

Source: Bloomberg

Attrition: we model flat y/y (lower ex ADT Mexico) from Q1 flat y/y. Net customer growth: we