U.S. Autos & Mobility: Highlights from BNEF’s 2026 EV Outlook - US to be the EV laggard, China trimmed but lead reaffirmed

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U.S. Autos & Mobility: Highlights from BNEF’s 2026 EV Outlook - US to be the EV laggard, China trimmed but lead reaffirmed

Equity Research

U.S. Autos & Mobility

30 June 2026

Highlights from BNEF’s 2026 EV

Outlook - US to be the EV laggard,

U.S. Autos & MobilityChina trimmed but lead reaffirmed

NEUTRAL

Key Takes: 1. BNEF EV forecast trimmed through 2040, U.S. Autos & Mobility

Dan Levyreflecting weaker US/China; 2. Ongoing regional divergence -

EU penetration raised, China cut modestly, significant US cut; +1dan.levy@barclays.com212 526 3212

3. China 2030 EV pen now 76%, US 17%, EU 53%; 3. Battery BCI, US

costs continue to decline: reflects China lead, overcapacity, Josh Cho

+1 212 526 7156

LFP joshua.cho@barclays.com

BCI, US

A key theme in the EV market over the past year has been the steep decline in US Joshua Young

EV expectations following the Trump administration's removal of both the "Carrot" (i.e. EV +1 212 526 3280

incentives) and the "Stick" (i.e. emission requirements, ZEV requirements) that had supported jryoung@barclays.com

BCI, USUS EV penetration. Earlier this month BNEF published its 2026 Electric Vehicle Outlook,

reflecting their updated EV penetration forecast and other key data points for the industry -

most notably battery costs.

Global EV forecast penetration estimates softened, but regional outlook

mixed

BNEF broadly reduced forecasts through 2040. Revisions varied by region, with cuts to the US

and China, but raises to Europe.

• Global EV penetration: Cuts through the forecast (through 2040), down ~200-450bps per

year. 2030 at 38% (prior 42%). Cuts largely attributable to lower US and China estimates

• China EV penetration: Cut ~300-500bps per year through the forecast, with an average

~420bps decline per year from '26-'40. 2030 at 76% (prior 80%).