Wienerberger "Q2 26 preview: a volatile few months" (Sell) Radlinger

研报英文原文证据摘录

Wienerberger "Q2 26 preview: a volatile few months" (Sell) Radlinger

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our Q2 estimate is accurate, adj. EBITDA is running at ~€785m, which is within 3-4% of

From To % ch Cons.

the €810m FY guide, in which case we think expecting an adjustment is a "close call". 12/26E 1.62 1.60 -1 2.02

At €771m we are 5% below (and 1-2% below Street), so do expect further downgrades 12/27E 1.98 1.97 -0 2.40

though. Our view here remains: we think WIE is managing through this exceptionally 12/28E 2.32 2.32 -0 2.84

volatile period well but fundamental earnings headwinds remain substantial, at least

short term: EU and especially US resi new-build remains very soft (US brick production is Julian Radlinger, CFA

trending down DD%), yields and mortgage rates remain above pre-conflict levels, plastic Analyst

julian.radlinger@ubs.com

resin input costs are a material headwind (for Q3 and Q4) and though we expect WIE to

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offset most of the inflation, doing so without project delays or other forms of demand

destruction seems unlikely to us. Compared to the €810m adj. EBITDA guidance, our

5% deviation continues to be driven by both just slightly worse volumes and moderately

negative price cost (which we assume WIE "gets back" in FY27E).

Which part of the Mid-East conflict ending matters most?

Lower oil prices will be followed by lower plastic resin prices (with a lag), which takes

pressure off pipes pricing - clearly a positive, though in our FY26/27 numbers we'd

assumed an overall ~neutral impact here already. Nat gas prices between €30 and €40/

MWh won't move the needle either in our view. The biggest swing factor is the yield

environment so we continue to focus on that as the coming quarters evolve.

Valuation: Sell, €21 price target, DCF-based