Gold Mining "Proceed with caution" Major

研报英文原文证据摘录

Gold Mining "Proceed with caution" Major

Global Research

29 June 2026ab

Gold Mining Equities

GlobalProceed with caution

Basic Materials

Daniel Major

Bull markets are more fun than bear markets...picking the bottom is tricky Analyst

Gold's strongest historical macro correlations are US real rates & US dollar, but in our daniel.major@ubs.com

view the hardest part about calling the gold cycle is when these correlations will break/ +44-20-7568 3472

re-emerge. Between 4Q24 & 1Q26, the gold price doubled and had limited/zero Myles Allsop

correlation with these key macro drivers with the motivation for broad based demand Analyst

dominated by debasement & diversification. The ME conflict proved to be the trigger for myles.allsop@ubs.com

gold's historical macro drivers to re-emerge. Energy-driven inflation & hawkish Fed +44-20-7568 1693

narrative led to a cross-asset repositioning resulting in: front-end rates repricing sharply, George Eadie

US real yields rising & USD strengthening, triggering a ~25% gold price correction. Analyst

george.eadie@ubs.com

+1-646-996 4596

If US data remains robust, real yields continue to grind higher or the USD strengthens

further, in our view near-term risks are skewed to the downside. However, key drivers of Amy Yi Li

the recent bull market remain in place including: central bank accumulation, rising Analyst

amy-yi.li@ubs.com

sovereign debt burdens and the ongoing trend toward geopolitical and monetary de-

+44-20-7568 2064

dollarization. In our view these forces will continue to underpin medium-term demand

for gold as both a reserve diversification asset and a hedge against systemic risks. Where Steve Friedman

is the floor? For a commodity with negligible industrial applications and no consistent Analyst

steve.friedman@ubs.com