Sesa (AO) | Buy | Q4 preview: finishing strong, next year guidance the catalyst

研报英文原文证据摘录

Sesa (AO) | Buy | Q4 preview: finishing strong, next year guidance the catalyst

#EarningsPreview

Release date: 01 July 2026

Tommaso Nieddu

Equity Research Analyst

+39 02 85 50 72 18

tnieddu@keplercheuvreux.com

BuySesa

Italy | IT services & software MCap: EUR1.4bn

Target Price: EUR100.00 Bloomberg: SES IM Reuters: SES.MI

Current Price: EUR89.75 Free float 45%

Up/downside: 11.4% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 4.8

YTD abs performance -0.1% Market data: 30 June 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 103.60/65.70

Q4 preview: finishing strong, next year guidance the catalyst

Key points:

Sesa should end the year well, in our view (as anticipated in our conference: IIC: Q4 to extend 9M outperformance, eyes on FY 2027).

Q4 revenues of EUR898m (+6.9%) and EBITDA of EUR69m (+8.0%, 7.7% margin) led by AI-driven ICT VAS (+10.5%) and Digital

Green (+13.2%), with SSI still soft (+1.0%) and BS quieter (for the phasing in some contracts) but margin-rich (-10.4%). Below

EBITDA, adj. net profit jumps +41.5% to EUR32m (EBIT +15.1%), helped by reduced PPA, the c.EUR7m Digital Value capital gain,

and lower interest charges.

With the year set to close at the upper bound of guidance (revenues c.EUR3.6bn, EBITDA EUR260m), the key catalysts of the

results are the new targets. We expect a higher FY 2026-27 range versus the current EUR3,700-3,880m/EUR265-291m and the first

FY 2027/28 targets. That leaves room for upside, as our revisions are deliberately light (FY 2027E revenues +1.2% to EUR3,814m,

shy of EUR4bn by FY 2028E).

We stay positive ahead of the print. FY 2026 has been a clean turnaround after a difficult 2025, restoring VAS growth, and cash

generation in one go. We confirm our Buy and EUR100 TP.

Reporting date 16-July

Conference call 16-July

Dial in number TBD

Table 1:Q4/2026E preview results