Tenaris (AO) | Hold | No big surprise from the Q2 release

研报英文原文证据摘录

Tenaris (AO) | Hold | No big surprise from the Q2 release

Tenaris Hold | Target Price: EUR25.00

Company description Management

Tenaris is a leading supplier of tubes and related services for the energy industry Paolo Rocca, Chairman

and certain other industrial applications. It principally engineers and designs Gabriel Podskubka, CEO

casing, tubing line pipe and mechanical pipes. Tenaris employs more than 26,000 Carlos Gómez Álzaga, CFO

people, is present on all continents, and its customers include the world's Key shareholders

leading oil and gas companies and engineering companies. Free float 39.40%

Techint 60.45%

Blacklorck 2.00%

Investment case Valuation methodology

Management appears very optimistic for H2 2026 and 2027, with We value Tenaris using an SOP, with the activities at 8x

higher volumes and better pricing. The US market (c.50 EV/EBITDA 2026-27E. We adjust our valuation for cash positions,

additional rigs by year-end) and international activities (c.+10% provisions, etc.

rig count) will both support earnings. EBITDA will improve We also use a FCF yield approach, based on a 7% FCF yield over

sequentially from Q2 2026. 2026-27E.

FCF will remain strong, and while it does not cover the current Risks to our rating

shareholder policy (USD900m dividend + USD1.2bn buyback), Higher oil price could lead to higher acitivty level in the US.

net cash position remains very large and we cannot rule out a The US administration could reinforce anti-dumping measures

potential special operation at a moment in time (special on OCTG imports, with positive impact for local players such as

dividend?). Tenaris. Measures against the "billets" could negatively impact

TEN would be very well placed for potential large pipeline work Tenaris's business (import part of it from Mexico).