Viridien (1K) | Buy | Losing flexibility on net cash flow guidance

研报英文原文证据摘录

Viridien (1K) | Buy | Losing flexibility on net cash flow guidance

#EarningsPreview #Negative #TPchange

#HighConviction #Actionable

Release date: 01 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile BuyViridien

France | Energy equip. & services Beta Profile: MCap: EUR595.0M

Target Price: EUR140.00 (180.00) Change in TP: -22.2 % Bloomberg: VIRI FP Reuters: VIRI.PA

Current Price: EUR83.80 Change in Sales: -9.3% 26E/-3.6% 27E Free float 100%

Up/downside: 67.1% Change in Adj EBIT: -23.6% 26E/-8.6% 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 9.0

YTD abs performance -14.8% Market data: 30 June 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -58.2% 26E/-16.7% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 154.50/47.76

Losing flexibility on net cash flow guidance Price performance

Why this report?

While we continue to believe in the group's net cash flow guidance for 2026,

the group's flexibility on that matter has significantly reduced over the past

two months. And it's now largely linked to PEMEX and the collection of the

receivables. Business has been much weaker than expected because of the

conflict in Iran (especially at Sercel/SMO) and while noises/speculation on

acceleration for new seismic data are clear, impact on the daily business

remains limited. We remain convinced of our equity story and the value of

Geoscience, but the short term is more challenging than expected. We cut our

2026E numbers and cut the TP to EUR140

Key findings

Sercel/SMO Q2 earnings will remain very weak, and we understand that the FY to 31/12 (USD) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

commercial dynamic remained muted fort now. While 2027 could be better with Sales 1,015 1,157 1,207

some mega-crews scheduled, we have "lost" USD10-15m cash generation in our EBITDA adj. 446 522 553

model for 2026 with a top line now forecasted at USD275m EBIT adj. 161 236 267

Net profit adj.