CEEMEA Strategy Notes: Local bond supply: likely negative net cash flows coming up in July

研报英文原文证据摘录

CEEMEA Strategy Notes: Local bond supply: likely negative net cash flows coming up in July

Deutsche Bank

Research

Central Asia Emerging Markets Date

Emerging Europe 1 July 2026

Middle East CEEMEA Strategy

Sub-Saharan Africa

Notes

Local bond supply: likely negative net

cash flows coming up in July

Anna Friedemann

Supply outlook: July Research Analyst

n We estimate gross issuance to decline to USD 32bn in July. If realised, this +44-20-754-11816

would imply a slowdown from 37bn in June but keep supply levels above

the 12m average (30bn). From a net supply perspective, July should see Christian Wietoska

even more favourable dynamics than June and mark the second lowest net Strategist

supply and net cash flow levels this year (with only October expected to be +44-20-754-52424

even more supportive). Ankit Jain

Research Associate

n Among index countries, we estimate gross supply in index countries to

decline with lower issuance expected in Türkiye, Israel, Poland, and the

Czech Republic and little change in the remaining index countries.

Borrowing plans are skewed towards direct sales in Türkiye in July rather

than auction-based borrowing. In Israel, weekly auction sizes are likely to

remain unchanged but there will likely be one less auction. In the Czech

Republic, emphasis has been on retail issuance lately taking pressure off

local bonds but local bond supply has regularly surprised to the upside of

announced amounts. Net supply is likely to be lower on the back of high

redemptions coming up in Poland (USD 9.3bn) and Israel (6bn) and to a

lesser degree in Romania (1.5bn) and Türkiye (0.4bn) this month. In

combination with large coupon payments in South Africa (3.7bn), Türkiye

(3.2bn), and Poland (3bn), we expect overall negative net cash flows,