Transferring Coverage: ATMU, CTRI, SPXC

研报英文原文证据摘录

Transferring Coverage: ATMU, CTRI, SPXC

Risks to Our Price Target and Rating for CTRI

• Shortfalls in margin expansion progress

• Execution missteps in transition to balanced lease-and-own fleet strategy

• Project execution with pursuit of additional bid work

• Customer concentration: ~50% of revenue is derived from top 10 customers and ~70% of revenue is derived from top 20 customers

• Potential for long-term MSA contracts to be terminated or not renewed

SPX Technologies, Inc. (SPXC)

Investment Thesis

We rate shares of SPXC Overweight. We expect continued earnings outgrowth vs. EEMI on MSD+ organic growth over the next two years

with continued margin expansion. Organic growth includes a LSD+ CAGR contribution from data center. In addition, we see attractive

M&A capacity to build on an already strong track record of capital deployment to deals. Steady replacement demand, capacity expansion

underway, and diverse exposure to nonres end markets all support our positive view.

Target Price Valuation for SPXC

• Our $240 price target is ~29.5x our NTM adj EPS estimate, a mid-20% premium to our EEMI group.

• The premium reflects organic growth strength and strong operating margins.

Risks to Our Price Target and Rating for SPXC

• Negative revisions to data center industry growth expectations

• Decreases in planned federal infrastructure spending

• A deterioration in trade relations with Canada and/or changes to USMCA coverage

• Increased tariffs on China pressures D&M margins

• Overall material inflation begins to weigh on HVAC margins

• PE competition drives more asset auctions making it increasingly more difficult to source attractive M&A opportunities

Companies Mentioned in Report

Company Name Ticker Last Price

(06/25/26)

Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. ATMU $54.17