Strong market data underpins our BUY rating

研报英文原文证据摘录

Strong market data underpins our BUY rating

Equity Research - 30 June 2026 08:25 CEST

Reason: Preview of resultsBHG Group

• Market indices look better q-o-q, Q2e org. acceleration of 4pp

• We forecast EBITA of SEK 169m, +43% y-o-y

• We reiterate BUY and our TP of SEK 40 Retail

Easier growth comps, FX supports GM Estimate changes (%)

BHG is meeting easier growth comparables in Q2 than in Q1, and will 2026e 2027e 2028e

no longer be negatively impacted by the ROT-related "hangover" in Q1. Sales 0.1 0.6 0.6

According to commentary from several home improvement companies, EBIT -2.7 -1.6 -1.4

the effect was centred on Jan-Feb. Coupled with strong Statistics Sweden EPS -4.7 -2.8 -2.5

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

market data published 30 June, we forecast a 4pp organic acceleration

to growth of 8% in Q2'26 and net sales of SEK 2,951m. We expect gross BHG-SE/BHG SS

margin support from FX – particularly in Value Home – to boost gross Share price (SEK) 29/6/2026 21.08

margins by 70bp y-o-y, with positive scale effects in personnel contributing Target price 40.00

30bp and scale in D&A adding another 20bp. In total, we forecast a margin

expansion of 140bp for EBITA of SEK 169m, +43% y-o-y.

MCap (SEKm) 3,778

6% growth in 2026e looks defensible MCap (EURm) 340

We take a slightly more cautious stance on organic growth for '26e No. of shares (m) 179.2

on the back of softer-than-expected market growth figures, and now Free float (%) 60.4

forecast 6.4% for Q2. This figure is based on our forecast of ~3% Swedish Av. daily volume (k) 618

real income growth and a historical trend of 2x real income growth in

cyclical categories. BHG's online exposure is further beneficial, and could

Next event Q2 report 17 July 2026contribute another 5pp to market growth, according to ECD forecasts