Rental market recovery has yet to materialise

研报英文原文证据摘录

Rental market recovery has yet to materialise

Equity Research - 30 June 2026 06:43 CEST

Reason: Preview of resultsAtrium Ljungberg

• Positive estimate revisions driven by updated rate assumptions

• Massive letting is not indicative of a larger trend shift

• Reiterate HOLD, target price SEK 28 (30) Constr. & Real Estate

1% below cons. on rec. PTP into the Q2 numbers Estimate changes (%)

We expect Q2'26 rental income of SEK 759m (+4.7% y-o-y). With a 71.0% 2026e 2027e 2028e

NOI margin, we forecast net operating income of SEK 538m (+2.8% y-o-y) Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0

and rec. PTP of SEK 329m (+5.0% y-o-y). We are in line with consensus NOI 0.0 0.0 0.0

on rental income and NOI, but are 1.3% below on rec. PTP into the Q2 CEPS 0.3 1.4 2.1

numbers, likely driven by higher net financials and/or central administration EPRA NRV per 0.0 0.1 0.1

costs. We make slight positive CEPS revisions of 0-2% for '26e-'28e, share

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

driven by revised interest rate assumptions.

ATRLJ.B-SE/ATRLJB SS

Massive lease but well into the future Share price (SEK) 26/6/2026 26.20

Atrium has posted six consecutive quarters of negative net letting, Target price (30.00) 28.00

averaging ~1pp of contracted rental income and amounting to 0.8pp in Q1.

As such, we argue that a trend shift in the underlying office rental market

has yet to materialise. Apart from the 58,000 sqm lease to Ericsson in MCap (SEKm) 16,928

Hagastaden (SEK 360m of net letting to be recognised in H2'27), press- MCap (EURm) 1,527

released lettings of any magnitude have been scarce, suggesting a high No. of shares (m) 646.1

likelihood of another quarter with weak net letting. We also have the Free float (%) 36.4

impression that this is compounded by a reluctance among public tenants Av. daily volume (k) 97