Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH US) Buy: High electricity bills, lasting storage tailwinds

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Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH US) Buy: High electricity bills, lasting storage tailwinds

ity are some of the 52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

biggest drivers of resi solar-plus-storage returns, supporting a market recovery that

79.00

can offset the 25D removal headwind. We expect electricity prices to rise structurally

and persistently over years in the US from here, underpinning a more durable 49.50

solar+energy storage system (ess) upcycle. 20.00

06/25 12/25 06/26

SST as a future optionality: ENPH’s share price has been volatile from May to Target price: 63.00 High: 72.33 Low: 26.12 Current: 47.21

June, likely pricing in rising expectations for solid-state transformers (SSTs) catered Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

to AIDC and the wave on AIDC infrastructure build-up. With many peers investing

and developing SSTs for AIDC, competition should be intense, and winners will be Daniel Yang*

defined by power-electronics execution and grid-integration capability. We view SST Analyst, Asia Energy Transition The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

as meaningful upside optionality for ENPH rather than a base-case driver. daniel.h.yang@hsbc.com.hk

+852 299 66976

Maintain Buy, raise TP to USD63 from USD48: We raise our 2027-28 earnings Evan Li*

estimates by 3-6% to reflect the improving outlook for US demand. We also raise our Head, Asia Energy Transition Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

PE-based TP to USD63 from USD48, based on 31x 2026e PE (from 24x), which is evan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk

the last three-year mean (from 1SD below), given a better shipment outlook. Our TP +852 2996 6619

implies c33% upside and we maintain our Buy rating. The underlying demand Lucille Tang*

Associate

appears to be poised for a recovery.