MU: Results well ahead; SCAs an incremental positive

研报英文原文证据摘录

MU: Results well ahead; SCAs an incremental positive

$10b is 2027 34.16E 36.04E 37.44E 38.13E

higher than our $9b estimates and management expects further increase Prev. 26.23E 27.85E 28.88E 29.32E

in coming quarters as the company looks to pull-in clean room additions. All values in USD unless otherwise noted.

Looking ahead, we expect ASP growth to moderate somewhat but continue Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

to see current DRAM cycle extending through CY27. We are raising our

FY26E EPS from $60.88 to $73.21, and our FY27E from $112.29 to $145.78.

We are raising our PT from $1,200 to $1,500 based on 10x our CY27 EPS.

SCAs: The company announced completion of 16 strategic customer

agreements representing ~20% of DRAM volume and ~33% of NAND

volume through 2030. These take-or-pay agreements include $22B in cash

deposits and financial commitments, with 14 agreements representing ~

$100B in minimum revenue over the duration of the contracts (typically

5-years). Agreements feature floor/ceiling pricing structures with floors

enabling "very robust gross margin well above peak quarterly margins

in any past cycle." Management expects approximately half of company

revenue to be covered by SCAs when fully executed, with 40% of the

revenue supported by a price floor or fixed pricing, which should help

limit margin risk for the duration of these agreements (implies 25-30% GM

even if GM for non-SCA portion declines to zero percent in a potential

downturn ).

DRAM pricing strength continuing; HBM4 ramping in volume: DRAM bits

grew low single digits while pricing increased 62%. Demand continues to

exceed supply by a wide margin and management expects tight supply

conditions to persist beyond 2027. Management expects industry DRAM