Raising Our Street-High Estimates on Confirmed $80 GTA VI Pricing

研报英文原文证据摘录

Raising Our Street-High Estimates on Confirmed $80 GTA VI Pricing

Take-Two Interactive Software - Block Summary Model

Income Statement 2026A 2027E 2028E

Bookings 6,720.9 10,649.6 11,192.1

Adjusted Operating Income 994 2,122 2,562 Valuation

Adjusted Operating Income Margin 14.8% 20.0% 23.0% Our $285 target price implies ~20x our 2028E adjusted

operating income estimate of $2.56B and ~4.5x our 2028E Net Income (non-GAAP) 754 1,693 2,020

bookings estimate of $11.2 billion.

Cash Flow Statement 2026A 2027E 2028E

Cash Flow From Operations 624 1,614 3,354 Upside Scenario $350.00

Our upside scenario implies outperformance relative to our

Cash Flow From Investments (649) (200) 0

GTA VI estimates, driven by higher unit sales and, more

Cash Provided From Financing 95 0 0 importantly, robust profit contributions from GTA Online.

Balance Sheet 2026A 2027E 2028E This live service generates high-margin subscription and

microtransaction revenue on an ongoing basis. Upside

Total Current Assets 3,200 5,594 8,387

outcomes could relate to strategic options for Take-Two

Total Assets 9,383 11,716 14,510 following Microsoft's acquisition of Activision.

Total Current Liabilities 2,589 2,734 2,639

Downside Scenario $175.00

Total Liabilities 5,872 6,012 5,923 Our downside scenario for Take-Two centers on game

Total Debt 2,488 2,488 2,488 delays, poor reviews of GTA VI, and potential global tariffs

that could affect sales of new console hardware.

Total Liabilities and Share Equity 9,383 11,716 14,510

Investors have been known to “sell the news” ahead of big

Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports game launches like GTA VI.

in USD

-28% +17% +44%

Downside Current Target Upside

Scenario Price Price Scenario

175.00 242.64 285.00 350.00

Key Catalysts