Cantor Daily Research Highlights

研报英文原文证据摘录

Cantor Daily Research Highlights

response) given the substantial dosing convenience advantage. See pages 88-90 for KOL

comments.

■ Net-net, given the strong biologic rationale, clinical de-risking of the hepcidin pathway in PV and the strong Ph1 data

for divesiran for PV, we believe divesiran has a high 75% PoS in PV vs. stock pricing in <25% PoS by our estimate.

Rusfertide deal between Protagonist and Takeda after positive Ph2 for PV is a useful valuation benchmark for divesiran:

■ Takeda announced the licensing agreement with Protagonist for rusfertide following positive P2 data in PV while the P3

was still ongoing, so there were still some clinical risks for rusfertide at the time of the deal. See page 21 for additional

details.

■ We estimate rusfertide's risk-adjusted NPV to Protagonist at ~$1-2.3B, based on peak sales assumptions of $500M -

$2B. By comparison, SLN currently trades at a market cap of ~$300M.

■ Our NPV calculation includes upfront + risk-adjusted milestones and royalty payments. We also assume a

gradual uptake ramp.

■ Note - Takeda has guided to $1-2B of peak sales potential for rusfertide. Our NPV sensitivity analysis for

divesiran is based on more conservative commercial assumptions, suggesting substantial upside for SLN even

without matching Takeda's expectations for rusfertide.

Divesiran forecast:

■ We forecast US unadjusted peak revenues of ~$770M for divesiran in PV. Our PoS is 75%.

■ See pages 94-95 for details of our assumptions.

■ Among key competitors, sapablursen (TMPRSS6-targeting ASO which is dosed monthly) from Ono (licensed from Ionis)

is ahead with P3 trial in PV already underway.

■ However, we do not view sapablursen as a significant competitive threat, as its efficacy in PV appears meaningfully