"State of Retail" Expert Series: Specialty Running Expert

研报英文原文证据摘录

"State of Retail" Expert Series: Specialty Running Expert

Industry Update Equity Research

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)

Investment Thesis

We are Underweight rated. While the stock has re-rated lower following the slowdown in 2H25 and FY26 trends, we believe Hoka revs

would need to show meaningful re-acceleration for shares to recapture the above-average multiple that drove shares 2022-2024. We

consider that potential against a backdrop where competitors are again investing more heavily in the running category, where Hoka is

highly concentrated, and where competitors have copied Hoka's silhouette.

Target Price Valuation for DECK

Our $90 PT reflects 11x on our CY27 EPS estimate - reasonable given the slowing growth and declining margin backdrop for the model.

Our PT reflects a below-consensus view due to concerns on slowing demand and structural deterioration of margin as the company invests

to sustain the top-line longer-term amidst an increasingly competitive category.

Risks to Our Price Target and Rating for DECK

Upside risks: (1) HOKA growth accelerates above the LDD algo, (2) UGG grows faster than anticipated and strategy to extend products

and men's works, and (3) share buybacks continue at an aggressive pace.

NIKE, Inc. (NKE)

We rate NKE Equal Weight. 1) While the North America business is improving as the headwind from classics dissipates, the international

market is deteriorating and is likely to drag on results near-term, 2) There are limited catalysts between now and "Win Now" actions ending

by year end and "Sports Offense" impacting Spring 2027; and 3) We see little upside to out-year earnings and very little valuation support

for what is proving to be a muted and prolonged recovery.

Target Price Valuation for NKE