KGS: Napkin Notes: Quick Takes from Dinner with Management

研报英文原文证据摘录

KGS: Napkin Notes: Quick Takes from Dinner with Management

Equity Research

Company Update — June 24, 2026

Midstream Energy

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.

Napkin Notes: Quick Takes from Dinner with Management Overweight

Price Target: $93.00

Our Call Ticker KGS

Upside/(Downside) to Target 30.6%

We hosted KGS mgt for an investor dinner and came away more confident in mgt’s ability

to deliver on its 2 GW by 2030 target for power. A first BTM deal could be announced by Price (06/24/2026) $71.22

year-end. Compression remains strong. We stay positive. 52 Week Range $30.06 - 77.68

Market Cap (MM) $6,232

Compression Targets Unchanged. Mgt outlined its broad Compression segment targets Enterprise Value (MM) $8,924

for the next 5 years, including (1) adding 750K HP per yr, (2) growing segment EBITDA Average Daily Value (MM) $118

from ~$800MM to ~$1,200MM (~8.4% 5 Yr CAGR), and (3) delivering high-single- Dividend Yield 2.8%

digit growth. This compares to our five-year EBITDA forecast of 5.0% (CAGR) with

2031 segment EBITDA of $991MM, which suggests our estimate could prove overly $ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

conservative (there's upside to our model). EBITDA (MM)

2026E 189.0 A 224.0 E 228.0 E 230.0 E 871.0 E

Compression ASPs Likely Trending Higher. Given strong underlying demand and tight 2027E 240.0 E 259.0 E 267.0 E 278.0 E 1.04B E

supply (due to CAT lead times), mgt expects ASPs to trend higher over time. Typically

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

when mkts are robust, compression can generate “upper teens to 20%” returns, while in a NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate

more muted environment the segment will generate “mid to upper teen” returns. KGS has

pre-ordered compression equipment through 2030, given lead times. Michael Blum