Nestlé "Q2 Preview: Further RIG improvement in Q2" (Neutral) Delmas

研报英文原文证据摘录

Nestlé "Q2 Preview: Further RIG improvement in Q2" (Neutral) Delmas

) (CHF)

its changes to route-to-market, but still held back by some trade inventory correction.

From To % ch Cons.

We expect pricing to further normalise in Q2 to +1.6% (from Q1 +2.3%) as Nestle 12/26E 4.49 4.50 0 4.40

annualises last year's price increases in Coffee and Confectionary. 12/27E 4.73 4.76 1 4.69

12/28E 4.99 5.02 1 4.96

H1 UTOP margins of 16.2%

Guillaume DelmasWe expect H1 UTOP margins to contract -30bps yoy but improving +50bps sequentially

Analyst

(i.e. vs the 15.7% achieved in H2 2025). This should reflect: (i) -110bps gross margin guillaume.delmas@ubs.com

contraction as a result of US tariffs and the tail-end of cocoa/coffee inflation, and (ii) a +44-20-7568 8568

+30bps increase in Marketing & Admin expenses, reflecting further reinvestment behind

Andrei CondreaNestle's Growth Platforms. In our view, the higher investments in Marketing are partly

funded by the elevated cost savings programme (CHF 3bn by end of 2027 with CHF andrei.condrea@ubs.com

0.9bn coming through this year). We expect H2 UTOP margins to positively inflect +44-20-7568 5061

+100bps, such that FY26 UTOP margins improve 30bps to 16.4 (vs cons 16.4%).

FY26-28E EPS broadly unchanges

We leave our FY26-28E EPS estimates broadly unchanged, reflecting largely unchanged

organic sales and margin estimates, while the softer FX headwind in Q1 is largely offset

by a stronger headwind in Q2. For 2026E, we continue to look for 3.3% OG (with RIG of

1.5%), Underlying Trading Operating Profit (UTOP) margin of 16.4%, +30bps yoy, and

an adjusted EPS of CHF4.50.

Valuation: Nestle on 19x 26E P/E (14.8x 26E P/E if ex. OR), in line with EU Food &

HPC large caps

Highlights (CHFm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E