Auto Sales Monthly Outlook: June SAAR est. of 16.2mm

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Auto Sales Monthly Outlook: June SAAR est. of 16.2mm

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Auto Sales Monthly Outlook

June SAAR est. of 16.2mm

Industry Overview

June SAAR estimate of 16.2mm, up 2.5% YoY 26 June 2026

We estimate that June U.S. light vehicle sales will increase +1.0% YoY on a selling day Equity

adjusted basis, for a SAAR of 16.2mm. Sales at this level would be slightly above the United States

May 2026 SAAR of 16.1mm, reflecting resilient consumer demand despite the recent Autos/Car Manufacturers

period of record high gas prices and broader geopolitical uncertainty. June performance Alexander Perry

at this level would bring the 2026 YTD SAAR to 15.8mm, below the 2025 YTD SAAR of Research Analyst

16.3mm which had benefitted from consumer pre-buying ahead of perceived price BofAS+1 646 855 1365

increases from tariffs. We expect hybrid growth to remain strong in June, while electric aperry3@bofa.com

vehicle sales likely continue to decline DD%+, a trend that has continued post the roll-off Jack Joyce, CFA

Research Analyst

of consumer tax incentives at the end of September 2025. Year-to-date penetration of BofAS

hybrids (through May) is +230bps to 14.9%, compared to a -170bp decline in EV +1 646 556 2798

jack.joyce@bofa.com

penetration to 5.6%.

Expect solid month for Korean & Japanese OEMs

We expect Korean & Japanese OEMs to show continued sales momentum in June

following a relatively strong May and solid YTD performance, with our channel checks

flagging relative strength versus other brands. Within the D3, Stellantis is likely to show Exhibit 1: We estimate a June SAAR of

growth from easy compares from last year & higher incentives vs. competitors. 16.2mm light vehicle

June 2026 estimated sales

Dauch disruption looks manageable for GM Total Vehicles